In today's analysis, we will take a look at the US Dollar against the Euro, USDEUR (although we can look at USD with any of the major currencies eg GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF). We need to constantly moniter the USD price movements as crypto currency traders as the majorcoins are cross paired with USD eg BTCUSD, ETHUSD, XRPUSD
By measuring time between: a) lows to highs b) highs to lows c) lows to lows d) highs to highs We can forecast time targets. The famous W.D Gann was a Master at this technique.
On a daily chart of the USDEUR crosspair, as of today writing on 5 July 2017.
We can see a major low was formed, on 25 August 2015 and then another major low almost at roughly the same price was formed, on 2 May 2016. By measuring the distance between these lows we can project forward the same distance, starting from the 2 May 2016 low. In doing so, we were able to pick the top (give or take a few days ) on the 2 January 2017.
We take this analysis further by projecting forward form the top of 2 January 2017 an equal distance amount in time, as previously, this takes us to a "forecast "date around 25 September 2017. A date to watch.
You will have observed that since 22nd February 2017, the USD has been in decline producing successive lower highs and lower lows - a definite Downtrend.
Now it should be noted, we don't know or care whether our forecast date will be a top or a bottom, all we are is saying is that we have identified a "rhythm in time", which the USD price action is currently observing, producing tops and bottoms we canuse for forecasting. Of course, this rhythm can and will change, at some point, but for now we can use it to anticipate a significant high or low. Nearer the time when the top/botton has been confirmed we can use our other trading techniques (which I teach you) to maximise our reward, whilst minimizing our risk.
Using what I have explained above, we therefore might expect price action to do one of two things, as it moves towards our 25 Sepetember 2017 target date:
a) it continues to meanders down, hitting a similar price to out previous lows on the 24 August 2015 low and 2 May 2016 Low OR b) if we look left on price action of the daily chart, we can see some support here at 0.8802. It therefore, may bounce from here and progressively move up to a top on or around our D-day of 25th Spetember 2017 .
As Bitcoin is cross paired with the USD, for now, we can assume an inverse relationship between BTC and USD, meaning whatever USD does Bitcoin will do the opposite. We would be savvy to moniter the USD price to assist our trading, not only to trade Bitcoin but any exchange listed cryptocurrencies.
Either way, we have a road map to follow so we can trade what we SEE not what we THINK.
Hope this helps.
Analysis by Sean Vengan 5 July 2017
Website : http://cryptotradingmastery.com/
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