Terra Money: Stability and Adoption

At what price will Bitcoin fail to function? My estimate: ~$100.

I'll begin with my conclusions:
If the Bitcoin network consisted solely of 'Titanium ASIC' miners, the most powerful and energy efficient mining machine I know of, then the price point at which electricity costs begins to exceed rewards is $71/BTC (based on yesterday's network figures; more on that later). More realistically though, most miners aren't running highly efficient Titanium ASICs, hence I estimate ~$100/BTC as the turning point.
I say 'fail to function' in my title, because who will continue to mine at a pure loss? It would be irrational - the rational action would be turn off the machine until the value of the rewards increases. Note: This is not the same as sunk costs in buying hardware - because in that case even if you never get back how much you paid, you're still making something.
Perhaps, you might counter, Bitcoin enthusiasts will continue to mine at a loss. Well consider this: To sustain just 1% of the current network hash rate, you would require 559 Titanium ASICs costing over one million dollars in yearly electricity cost (at $0.10/kWh) - and that's a best case scenario.
Let's assume that's the case - you have Bitcoin Enthusiasts contributing the equivalent of 559 Titanium ASICs hashing power for free out of their pocket. That's a 99% drop in hash rate. The time to a difficulty retarget is 2016 blocks, or at 10minutes/block that's 2 weeks. But if the hash rate were to drop by 99% within that two week period, then the block time would balloon out to 16.66 hours - making the block retarget ETA up to 3.8 years!
If transactions took 16.66 hours just to get a single confirmation (if they had first priority), then how would use of Bitcoin remain practically feasible? Would people still have confidence in the system and the developers for allowing this to happen? How difficult or costly would it be to launch a 51% attack?
Now, on to the calculations, and a few less optimistic alternate scenarios:
Network hash rate at time of calculation: 335,365,290.09 GH/s
335,365,290.09 GH/s / 6000GH/s = 55894.215 'Titanium ASIC' miners
55894.215 x $5.28 daily electricity cost (At $0.10/kWh) = $295121.4552/day in electricity costs
= $1776.87709485/block (avg. time of 8.67 minutes)
$1776.87709485 / 25BTC block reward = $71.04/BTC = break even point.
The above does not account for pool fees or transaction fee revenue or more importantly variance in kWh rates ($0.10/kWh is nonetheless pretty low worldwide), and hardware cost is irrelevant to this calculation.
Without doing all the math again, here's some other popular mining machines for comparison:
$113.07 (SP35 Yukon)
$193.84 (CoinTerra TerraMiner IV)
$385.89 (Antminer S1)
I've also just seen the 'Antminer S4' mentioned in /Bitcoin, so just for comparison a Titanium ASIC is almost twice as energy efficient as an Antiminer S4 (2200W vs. 4200W for 6TH/s) - it's less efficient than the SP35 Yukon.
If I've made any miscalculations here or have left anything important out, feel free to correct me.
submitted by Josh_Garza to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Cointerra Forecasted Return on 1 TH/s Investment

I was looking at the Cointerra Terraminer II tonight, wondering if I should even bother hopping on the campaign trail re: my wife letting me burn $3,499 on another miner...so I decided to chart out the return on investment using a calculator I found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0
I left all of the default values in place, only changing the estimated BTC value (which was set by default to $250 USD) to form a conservative + best-case scenario.
This is what I came up with --
http://i.imgur.com/CUOweRQ.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/vzTj05k.jpg
These numbers assume I am getting free electricity at the office, where I currently mine with a 30 GH little single, ordered in October of 2012 and delivered some time in August, 2013.
Unless my numbers are way off (and who knows, really..), the best-case scenario isn't very attractive. I'd sooner drop $3,499 on buying Bitcoin itself -- it would seem like this was more of a sure thing given how time-sensitive delivery time can be. In the best-case scenario, if delivery were to slip by just one month to mid-February, I might not break even by the end of 2014.
This is my best shot at analyzing this sort of purchase -- am I close?
submitted by baconslammer to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

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Teraminer Cloud Mining 100Gh/s Review

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