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Price Discovery in Bitcoin exchange

About thirty days ago I shared a chart on Price Discovery in this sub. There was a lot of interest in it and I promised to explain in detail a Bitcoin price discovery algorithm.. I do so in this post.
*this text post is a slightly shorter version of what I wrote in my blog.

TL;DR

I applied price discovery algorithms to 5 Min OHLCV data from Bitmex and CME contracts and Bitstamp, Coinbase, HitBTC, Kraken, Poloniex, Binance, and OkEx BTCUSD/BTCUSDT markets from March 2016 to May 2020. Some exciting results I got was:

Introduction

Price discovery is the overall process of setting the price of an asset. Price discovery algorithms identify the leader exchanges whose traders define the price. Two approaches are most famous for use in Price Discovery. Gonzalo and Granger (1995) and Hasbrouck (1995). But they assume random walk, and a common efficient price. I do not feel comfortable assuming random walk and common efficient price in Bitcoin Markets. So I used this little know method by De Blasis (2019) for this analysis. This work assumes that "the fastest price to reflect new information releases a price signal to the other slower price series." I thought this was valid in our market. It uses Markov Chains to measure Price Discovery. Without going into the mathematical details the summary steps used was:
De Blasis (2019) names this number Price Leadership Share (PLS). High PLS indicates a large role in price discovery. As the sum of the numbers is 1, they can be looked at as a percentage contribution. I recommend reading the original paper if you are interested to know more about the mathematical detail.

Data

Andersen (2000) argues that 5 Minute window provides the best trade-off between getting enough data and avoiding noise. In one of the first work on Bitcoin's Price Discovery, Brandvold et al. 2015 had used 5M window. So I obtained 5M OHLCV data using the following sources:
Futures data are different from other data because multiple futures contract trades at the same time. I formed a single data from the multiple time series by selecting the nearest contract until it was three days from expiration. I used the next contract when the contract was three days from expiration. This approach was advocated by Booth et al ( 1999 )

Analysis

I can't embed the chart on reddit so open this https://warproxxx.github.io/static/price_discovery.html
In the figure above, each colored line shows the total influence the exchange had towards the discovery of Bitcoin Price on that day. Its axis is on the left. The black line shows a moving average of the bitcoin price at the close in Bitfinex for comparison. The chart was created by plotting the EMA of price and dominance with a smoothing factor of 0.1. This was done to eliminate the noise. Let's start looking from the beginning. We start with a slight Bitfinex dominance at the start. When the price starts going up, Bitfinex's influence does too. This was the time large Tether printing was attributed to the rise of price by many individuals. But Bitfinex's influence wanes down as the price starts rising (remember that the chart is an exponential moving average. Its a lagging indicator). Afterward, exchanges like Binance and Bitstamp increase their role, and there isn't any single leader in the run. So although Bitfinex may have been responsible for the initial pump trades on other exchanges were responsible for the later rally.
CME contracts were added to our analysis in February 2018. Initially, they don't have much influence. On a similar work Alexandar and Heck (2019) noted that initially CBOE contracts had more influence. CBOE later delisted Bitcoin futures so I couldn't get that data. Overall, Bitmex and CME contracts have been averaging around 50% of the role in price discovery. To make the dominance clear, look at this chart where I add Bitmex Futures and Perp contract's dominance figure to create a single dominance index. There bitmex leads 936 of the total 1334 days (Bitfinex leads 298 days and coinbase and binance get 64 and 6 days). That is a lot. One possible reason for this might be Bitmex's low trading fee. Bitmex has a very generous -0.025% maker fee and price discovery tend to occur primarily in the market with smaller trading costs (Booth et al, 1999). It may also be because our market is mature. In mature markets, futures lead the price discovery.
Exchange bitmex_futures bitfinex coinbase bitmex okex binance cme bitstamp okcoin kraken poloniex
Days Lead 571 501 102 88 34 12 8 7 6 4 1
 Table 1: Days Lead 
Out of 1334 days in the analysis, Bitmex futures leads the discovery in 571 days or nearly 43% of the duration. Bitfinex leads for 501 days. Bitfinex's high number is due to its extreme dominance in the early days.
Exchange binance huobi cme okcoin bitmex_futures okex hitbtc kraken poloniex bitstamp bitfinex coinbase bitmex
Correlation 0.809190 0.715667 0.648058 0.644432 0.577147 0.444821 0.032649 -0.187348 -0.365175 -0.564073 -0.665008 -0.695115 -0.752103
 Table 2: Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index 
Binance, Huobi, CME, and OkCoin had the most significant correlation with the close price. Bitmex, Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Bitstamp's dominance were negatively correlated. This was very interesting. To know more, I captured a yearwise correlation.
index 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0 bitfinex 0.028264 -0.519791 0.829700 -0.242631 0.626386
1 bitmex 0.090758 -0.752297 -0.654742 0.052242 -0.584956
2 bitmex_futures -0.011323 -0.149281 -0.458857 0.660135 0.095305
3 bitstamp 0.316291 -0.373688 0.600240 -0.255408 -0.407608
4 coinbase -0.505492 -0.128336 -0.351794 -0.410874 -0.262036
5 hitbtc 0.024425 0.486229 0.104912 -0.200203 0.308862
6 kraken 0.275797 0.422656 0.294762 -0.064594 -0.192290
7 poloniex 0.177616 -0.087090 0.230987 -0.135046 -0.154726
8 binance NaN 0.865295 0.706725 -0.484130 0.265086
9 okcoin NaN 0.797682 0.463455 -0.010186 -0.160217
10 huobi NaN 0.748489 0.351514 -0.298418 0.434164
11 cme NaN NaN -0.616407 0.694494 -0.012962
12 okex NaN NaN -0.618888 -0.399567 0.432474
Table 3: Yearwise Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index
Price movement is pretty complicated. If one factor, like a dominant exchange, could explain it, everyone would be making money trading. With this disclaimer out of the way, let us try to make some conclusions. This year Bitfinex, Huobi, and OkEx, Tether based exchanges, discovery power have shown a high correlation with the close price. This means that when the traders there become successful, price rises. When the traders there are failing, Bitmex traders dominate and then the price is falling. I found this interesting as I have been seeing the OkEx whale who has been preceding price rises in this sub. I leave the interpretation of other past years to the reader.

Limitations

My analysis does not include market data for other derivative exchanges like Huobi, OkEx, Binance, and Deribit. So, all future market's influence may be going to Bitmex. I did not add their data because they started having an impact recently. A more fair assessment may be to conclude this as the new power of derivative markets instead of attributing it as the power of Bitmex. But Bitmex has dominated futures volume most of the time (until recently). And they brought the concept of perpetual swaps.

Conclusion

There is a lot in this data. If you are making a trading algo think there is some edge here. Someday I will backtest some trading logic based on this data. Then I will have more info and might write more. But, this analysis was enough for to shift my focus from a Bitfinex based trading algorithm to a Bitmex based one. It has been giving me good results.
If you have any good ideas that you want me to write about or discuss further please comment. If there is enough interest in this measurement, I can setup a live interface that provides the live value.
submitted by warproxxx to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Decred Journal — April 2018

This post covers what happened in Decred last month. Let's get down to business and have About section at the end.

Development

Wallet and node software version 1.2.0 has been released. Decrediton wallet highlights: improved startup experience, redesigned overview page, added basic graphs to visualize statistics and an export to CSV (helpful for tax reporting). dcrd node software highlights: significantly faster startup and compact filters to support light clients. See full release notes and downloads here, for Decrediton use 1.2.1 bugfix release.
The release process has been improved. Instead of announcing a release date and trying to meet it, a Release Candidate 1 (RC1) will now be posted. After it has been tested an bugfixed with the help of the community, a second candidate (RC2) will be released. This is repeated until an RC version with no apparent bugs becomes the final release. The new process removes a ton of pressure from developers and users and gives more time for testing. As our primary consumer-facing product, Decrediton, is growing in features and complexity, more testing will be required for new releases.
Politeia is "Getting close to a public beta of voting" (slack). Decred plugin merged, paywall and voting are in the testing stage. Ticket voting works on testnet via CLI.
Trezor support got closer as Decred patch was merged. Please note this is only firmware support, to be usable it also needs wallet integration.
WooCommerce Decred plugin alpha version is ready for testing.
Decred.org received a new sleek exchanges page.
The contributors page has been updated to add 10 new faces. Some of them are new to the project but others have been contributing for a while.
Dev activity stats for April: 152 active PRs, 125 commits, 21,656 added and 10,288 deleted lines spread across 7 repositories done by 2-7 developers per repository. (chart)

Network

Hashrate: April started at 2.0-2.7 PH/s range and seen a general increase with some big fluctuations between lows at 2.2 and new all time high above 5.2 PH/s.
Nodes: there are 200 public listening and 500 normal nodes per dcred.eu as of May 1. 169 nodes already upgraded to version 1.2.0. Some 30 nodes were observed to be testing Release Candidate versions before the final release.
Ticket price 30-day average has seen a steady rise to 87.5 DCR. Stake participation is solid 46.1% with 3.53 million DCR as of May 1.

ASICs

Updates from Obelisk's Taek:
We got results back. They are more or less on line with the simulations I didn't realize this, but we don't get the real chips back for 3 more weeks. The ones we've been testing are hacked together into a DIP package (they are BGA chips) that really screws up the results There's a decent chance that the full bga chips perform better For the time being though, we're pretty much on track for the hashrates estimated on the website (slack, Apr 12)
And regarding the June delivery date:
We're still on track for batch 1. We've ordered most of the parts we'll need, including the chips. We've got working chips, we've got test boards, test units, test everything. We've signed manufacturers to produce everything. Obelisk is going strong. (reddit, Apr 23)
We are thankful for his updates in our #pow-mining channel and hope other ASIC manufacturers will also join.
Fellow Sia miners are discussing the design of Obelisk SC1 case.
Halong: B29 units are shipping. The amount of units in first batch was estimated 450-600 by our community member. Review of DragonMint B29 published, people are discussing shipping and running the miners.
By surprise, Innosilicon announced the sale of D9 DecredMaster ASIC miner with specs identical to Halong B29 while being much cheaper ($6800 Inno vs $10499 Halong). Expected shipping date of the first batch is April 28-30. The company is active on their bitcointalk thread, also see our reddit.
Just 9 days later Innosilicon announced second batch with delivery on May 7-11 and same price of $6800. (reddit)

Integrations

Decred's Brazilian community made good progress with integrations this month.
emiliomann: On April 2nd @Rhama will launch the first BR exchange of altcoins with fiat market and totally within the laws of the Brazilian government. Decred will have the two markets DCBTC and DCBRL. It’s very difficult to fulfill all the legal requirements and get authorization to work with FIAT here.
The exchange turned out to be Profitfy. Profity is innovating by using dcrtime for their blockchain ID login via Original My. Great to see this deeper engagement with the tools that Decred provides, and not a surprise that it comes from @Rhama, who has been a community member since day one.
This seems to have spurred another exchange, Braziliex, to bring forward their launch of DCBRL and DCBTC pairs, coming just 2 hours after Profitfy launched.
Not stopping there,
emiliomann: Hey guys, this is a poll of the biggest Bitcoin exchange in Brazil that is planning to open altcoins markets. Please, help the Brazilian community by voting for Decred! Just one click. Thank you! https://twitter.com/mercadobitcoin/status/981602483268194307
Finally,
viniciusfrias: We're excited to announce PagueCripto.com, a Brazilian crypto-to-fiat payment gateway which accepts Decred among other cryptocurrencies for Brazilians to pay daily bills, such as credit cards, energy, rent, etc, and also to make local bank transfers. Our service is both a web platform and an Android app, and as our community is relevant in Brazil, we are offering a discount coupon (50%) in service fees using DCR until May 14, 2018. Check it out at paguecripto.com and in Google Play Store. (slack)
Moving to other countries, good news from Canada:
michae2xl: Decred is now available on @ezBtcCanada, an exchange with DCCAD trading pair. From Toronto – ezbtc.ca
i2Rav announced i2trading.com, a new trading desk that will be offering DCEUR pair:
Eventually we hope to offer the pair in GBP and YEN as well
changenow.io, a non-custodian exchange for fast conversions, added DCR.
You can see all exchanges known to support Decred in a spreadsheet maintained by snr01. Many of them are missing from coinmarketcap.

Adoption

The Crypto Lawyers, LLP, a crypto exclusive U.S. law firm began accepting Decred (reddit):
RAurelius: I think that a law firm accepting Decred is a worthy distinction from other previously publicized companies that accept Decred for typical consumer products. Legal services are severely lacking in the Crypto-sphere, so the publicity is good for everyone in this arena.
Great to see business owners reaching us directly in chat.
VotoLegal is migrating from Ethereum to Decred blockchain:
emiliomann: VotoLegal, a Brazilian project that uses blockchain technology to allow election campaign funding to be transparent and that all transactions conducted are tracked and made available to the citizens, now uses dcrtime and Decred blockchain. https://twitter.com/decred_bstatus/986610826051276800 (slack)

Partnerships

YBF Ventures and Decred announced partnership in building a blockchain-focused development and business hub in Australia.
With the YBF Ventures partnership, Decred hopes to grow their Australian contractor network and scale their operations throughout the Asia-Pacific region. (btcmanager.com)
We specifically chose Decred for a more robust corporate partnership, and it is the first time that a decentralised autonomous organisation is partnering with a ‘traditional’ organisation in such a capacity. (ybfventures.com)

Marketing

Dustorf joined on the marketing front and is conducting a brand discovery analysis:
Decred is soliciting the input of our user community. In order to better understand you, what you think of Decred, and where you would like it to focus its efforts, we've come up with a short (4 minute) survey. Your input of all varieties is most appreciated https://www.surveymonkey.com/2LHK3FV
April targeted advertising report released (previous March report here). Reach @timhebel for full version.
The iconic "Not Overly Scammy" t-shirt by cryptograffiti is available for purchase. For those wondering, the meme originates from @fluffypony.
Some hilarious promos by @jackliv3r: one two three.

Events

Community event at YBF Ventures in Australia.
Meetup in Wroclaw, Poland.
BBQ with @scalarcapital team in Austin, USA.
Blockchain Expo in London, UK. Decred was well represented at this large-scale industry event. Project Lead Jake took part in several interview and the Decred stand manned by community members was flooded with inquisitive visitors. (video, photo 1 2 3)
First Decred meetup in Hangzhou, China. (slack)
Business of Blockchain at MIT Media Lab in Cambridge, USA. Presentation: Blockchain Sovereignty and Blockchain Integration for Businesses by Jake Yocom-Piatt. (event, reddit, photo 1 2 3)
Cambridge Blockchain Meetup in Cambridge, USA. Talk: Cutting the Head off the Snake by Jake Yocom-Piatt. (event, photo 1 2 3)
Upcoming events:

Media

Second episode of Lightning Network educational series is out, exploring topics such as payment channels, onion routing, centralization risk, and challenges that still lie ahead. (youtube)
A user’s perspective and introduction to blockchain governance (Richard Red)
The Importance of Governance: Analyzing the Aftermath of the Monero Hard Fork by Noah Pierau (btcmanager.com)
The Crypto Show w/ Marco from Decred (youtube)
Interview with Jake at @Blockchain_Expo by Crypto Coin Growth (youtube)
Interview with Jake at @Blockchain_Expo by Cryptocurrency Academy (youtube)
Alternative Blockchain Governance Systems With Jake & Kyle From Decred at @Blockchain_Expo by Crypto Disrupt (youtube)
Decred Looks Ahead: An Interview with Project Lead Jake Yocom-Piatt (Exclusive) (sludgefeed.com)
How Complex Bitcoin Politics Led to the Creation of Decred (btcmanager.com)
Interview with Decred’s Project Lead Jake Yocom-Piatt on Crypto Ad Bans and Market Volatility (cryptoslate.com)
Decred’s Jonathan Zeppettini: The Industry Is Going To Be Displacing Wall Street (blocktribune.com)
On Chain VS. Off Chain Governance: The Ins And Outs (coinjournal.net)
Decred: On true decentralisation, Bitcoin communities, and avoiding the ICO route [Video] (blockchaintechnology-news.com)
Marco in shitcoin talk episode 54 (youtube)

Community Discussions

Reddit highlights: A debate on Decred protocol security and attack cost, a comparison of expected and actual block production times, a write-up on distribution of powers and how Monero could benefit from a PoS governance layer, two other threads on ASIC resistance, and one discussing different types of decentralization.
Very thoughtful discussion on whether it is appropriate to use half naked photos in marketing, followed by meta-discussion how to handle very polarizing issues and unwanted contributions to the marketing efforts of a decentralized project. (slack, continued)
A new #governance channel was created to discuss governance in Decred and other projects.
politeia subreddit was recovered for Decred community. Thanks to Tivra for filing the request. Politeia can bring a lot of value outside Decred so it well deserves its own sub.
A new Slack invite page has been setup and onboarded 40 people in 48 hours.
Decred StackExchange site proposal was closed due to inactivity in a 7 day period, according to Area 51 rules.

Markets

In April Decred showed a confident recovery after previous months. DCUSD moved from below $40 to nearly $90 and the more liquid DCBTC from 0.0058 to 0.0093.
OOOBTC showed unexpectedly huge DCR trading volume of $19 m on April 10 (reddit), it went back to normal 2 weeks later.
On April 25 a wild rush took the price from 0.00777 to 0.0177 BTC in under 30 minutes on Poloniex, setting a new USD all time high of ~$165 ($141 world average). Prices on other exchanges followed to a lesser degree. Possible causes were discussed on reddit. Talking about all time highs, an indicator tracking difference between ATH and current price shows Decred is competitive at retaining USD value.

Relevant External

Bittrex finally opened registrations again.
ASIC debates are raging after Bitmain stealth-launched ASICs for Sia, Monero and Ethereum. Most opinions reflect on whether and how to resist ASICs, but some are recognizing the Decred way, like this excellent piece.
The importance of governance is gaining recognition as well. One notable example is Mike Hearn's AMA where it was a hot topic.

About This Issue

This project was motivated by the desire to expose just how much is happening in Decred and save the time for people unable to actively follow our channels. It aims to cover all relevant developments with a short description and links to read further. It shows the depth of the project and the involvement of the community. We also plan to launch a newsletter and consider a shorter version if there is such a demand.
This is the first issue and feedback is welcome to discover what is best for our readers. Please join our Slack and write us on #writers_room or comment directly on GitHub. Any help is welcome too.
Credits (Slack names, alphabetical order): bee, jazzah, Richard-Red, snr01 and vj.
submitted by jet_user to decred [link] [comments]

I created a website where Bitcoin traders and investors could go to get easy access to datasets and trading tools. This platform would be tailored to folks who prefer to do analysis within spreadsheets such as Excel and Google Sheets.

https://spreadstreet.io
My name is John, and back in February of this year I started working on a website where Bitcoin traders and investors could go to get easy access to datasets and trading tools (such as technical analysis templates). This platform would require no coding knowledge, and would be tailored to folks who prefer to do analysis within spreadsheets such as Excel and Google Sheets.
Quick About Me
I am a former Fortune 500 financial analyst, where I managed two $3 billion portfolios. I've been investing/trading since 2002/2003. If you take a look at my kindle cloud reader, you will see over 100 books dedicated to trading and investing of all sorts - technical analysis, fundamental analysis, daily options trading strategies, value investing, volatility trading, quantitative trading, algorithmic trading, and bullshit trading.
I think Bitcoin and crypto is the future, and I believe that it is on an unstoppable path. My ultimate goal is to become a cost-leader in the field, and be tailored towards the individual investor. You shouldn't have to pay hundreds to thousands of dollars for top-notch tools.
Features at a Glance
Databases currently included (updated daily)
All datasets are available as a tab-delimited, CSV file. The datasets are a mix between raw tick data, OHLCV, spreads, mining and economic statistics. They can be used for backtesting, analysis, and charting.
Investing/Trading Templates
On The Horizon
Potential Ideas
I'm open to answer questions or talk more about the project if there's interest. Hope it helps the traders and investors out there.
John
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

I created a website where Ethereum traders and investors could go to get easy access to datasets and trading tools. This platform would be tailored to folks who prefer to do analysis within spreadsheets such as Excel and Google Sheets.

https://spreadstreet.io
My name is John, and back in February of this year I started working on a website where Digital Currency traders and investors could go to get easy access to datasets and trading tools (such as add-ins, charting, and technical analysis templates). This platform would require no coding knowledge, and would be tailored to folks who prefer to do analysis within spreadsheets such as Excel and Google Sheets.
Quick About Me
I am a former Fortune 500 financial analyst, where I managed two $3 billion portfolios. I've been investing/trading since 2002/2003. If you take a look at my kindle cloud reader, you will see over 100 books dedicated to trading and investing of all sorts - technical analysis, fundamental analysis, daily options trading strategies, value investing, volatility trading, quantitative trading, algorithmic trading, and bullshit trading.
I think Ethereum and crypto is the future, and I believe that it is on an unstoppable path. My ultimate goal is to become a cost-leader in the field, and be tailored towards the individual investor. You shouldn't have to pay hundreds to thousands of dollars for top-notch tools.
Features at a Glance
Databases currently included (updated daily)
All datasets are available as a tab-delimited, CSV file. The datasets are a mix between raw tick data, OHLCV, spreads, mining and economic statistics. They can be used for backtesting, analysis, and charting.
Investing/Trading Templates and Strategies
On The Horizon
Potential Ideas
I'm open to answer questions or talk more about the project if there's interest. Hope it helps the traders and investors out there.
John
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to ethtrader [link] [comments]

I created a website where Crypto traders and investors could go to get easy access to datasets and trading tools. This platform would be tailored to folks who prefer to do analysis within spreadsheets such as Excel and Google Sheets.

https://spreadstreet.io
My name is John, and back in February of this year I started working on a website where Digital Currency traders and investors could go to get easy access to datasets and trading tools (such as add-ins, charting, and technical analysis templates). This platform would require no coding knowledge, and would be tailored to folks who prefer to do analysis within spreadsheets such as Excel and Google Sheets.
Quick About Me
I am a former Fortune 500 financial analyst, where I managed two $3 billion portfolios. I've been investing/trading since 2002/2003. If you take a look at my kindle cloud reader, you will see over 100 books dedicated to trading and investing of all sorts - technical analysis, fundamental analysis, daily options trading strategies, value investing, volatility trading, quantitative trading, algorithmic trading, and bullshit trading.
I think crypto is the future, and I believe that it is on an unstoppable path. My ultimate goal is to become a cost-leader in the field, and be tailored towards the individual investor. You shouldn't have to pay hundreds to thousands of dollars for top-notch tools.
Features at a Glance
Databases currently included (updated daily)
All datasets are available as a tab-delimited, CSV file. The datasets are a mix between raw tick data, OHLCV, spreads, mining and economic statistics. They can be used for backtesting, analysis, and charting.
Investing/Trading Templates and Strategies
On The Horizon
Potential Ideas
I'm open to answer questions or talk more about the project if there's interest. Hope it helps the traders and investors out there.
John
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

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The most popular and trusted block explorer and crypto transaction search engine. Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. Track Bitcoin price and live trades on bitcoin exchanges: OKCoin, Kraken, Bitfinex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, HitBTC, Btc-E, Gemini, BTCC, Poloniex, itBit, and others. Lightweight Charts. Top performance in a tiny package. Free, open-source and feature-rich. At just 43 kilobytes, the dream of lightweight interactive charts is now a reality. HTML5 Canvas technology ensures that (unlike pictures) this chart will always look perfect on any device. Exploratory data analysis plays a role in the work of data science and machine learning.Photo on UnsplashIn this post I am giving a brief intro of Exploratory data analysis(EDA) in Python with help of Overview of Exploratory Data Analysis With Python

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