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NodeCounter.com - Bitcoin software implementation tracking

NodeCounter.com - Bitcoin software implementation tracking. Bitcoin Classic, Unlimited, XT, Core. Graphs, charts, and data collection.
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Dogecoin

The most amazing place on reddit! A subreddit for sharing, discussing, hoarding and wow'ing about Dogecoins. The new innovative crypto-currency.
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More Great Bitcoin Cash Tokens Charts and Graphs

More Great Bitcoin Cash Tokens Charts and Graphs submitted by MemoryDealers to btc [link] [comments]

Crypto Rider - A free game some guy made about racing on Bitcoin and other crypto's historical price graphs! Like 'Line Runner' meets 2D price-chart version of 'Audiosurf'

Crypto Rider - A free game some guy made about racing on Bitcoin and other crypto's historical price graphs! Like 'Line Runner' meets 2D price-chart version of 'Audiosurf' submitted by Hitchie_Rawtin to gaming [link] [comments]

Bitcoin mentioned around Reddit: Crypto Rider - A free game some guy made about racing on Bitcoin and other crypto's historical price graphs! Like 'Line Runner' meets 2D price-chart version of 'Audiosurf' /r/gaming

Bitcoin mentioned around Reddit: Crypto Rider - A free game some guy made about racing on Bitcoin and other crypto's historical price graphs! Like 'Line Runner' meets 2D price-chart version of 'Audiosurf' /gaming submitted by HiIAMCaptainObvious to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethfinance [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Understanding the RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Understanding the RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), is one of the most popular indicators used in Technical Analysis. Firstly Introduced in J. Welles Wilder’s book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems”, the RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the velocity of directional price movement and scaled between 0-100. In the classic view, security is thought to be overbought when its RSI reading is above 70 and oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.

# How is it Calculated?

The equation for the Relative Strength Index, RSI, is:
RSI Formula
For the first calculation of the Relative Strength Index, RSI, we need the previous 14 day’s close prices. The initial RSI is calculated as follows:
  1. Obtain the sum of the UP closes for the previous 14 days and divide this sum by 14. This is the average UP close.
  2. Obtain the sum of the DOWN closes for the previous 14 days and divide this sum by 14. This is the average DOWN close.
  3. Divide the average UP close by the average DOWN close. This is the Relative Strength (RS).
  4. Add 1.00 to the RS.
  5. Divide the result obtained in Step (4) Into 100 (100 is the nominator).
  6. Subtract the result obtained in Step 5 from 100. This is the first RSI.
From this point on, it is only necessary to use the previous average UP close and the previous average DOWN close in the calculation of the next RSI.

# How to Use it Correctly

If used properly, the RSI can be a very valuable tool in interpreting chart movement.
Tops and Bottoms: These are indicated when the Index goes above 70 or below 30. The Index will usually top out or bottom out before the actual market top or bottom, giving an indication that a reversal or at least a significant reaction is imminent.
Failure Swings: When the RSI crosses down the 70 level and rebounds back up yet fails to reach the previous high. The low point made when the RSI rebounded is considered as a potential short entry point when the RSI moves below this level. Conversely, when the RSI crosses up over the 30 level and rebounds back down but fails to move as low as the previous low reading, it is a failure swing. The peak made when the RSI rebounded is considered a potential long entry point when the RSI moves above this level.
Support and Resistance: Areas of support and resistance often show up clearly on the RSI before becoming apparent on the bar chart. In fact, support and resistance lines drawn using the RSI points are often analogous to trend lines drawn using bar chart points.
Divergence: Divergence between price action and the RSI is a very strong indicator of a market turning point. Divergence occurs when the RSI is increasing while the price movement is either flat or decreasing. Conversely, divergence occurs when the RSI is decreasing price movement is either flat or increasing.
Here is an example of a bullish divergence on BTC/USD (Bitcoin) which signaled the bullish trend occurred after that:

RSI Example
As you can see, a bullish divergence formed in November-December of 19. The bullish divergence formed with Bitcoin moving to new lows in December and RSI holding above its prior low. The mid-December breakout confirmed improving momentum. Divergences tend to be more robust when they form after an overbought or oversold reading.

# Summary

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), used in conjunction with a bar chart, can provide a new dimension of interpretation for the chart trader. No single tool, method or system is going to produce the right answers 100% of the time. A successful trader utilizes several different kinds of input into his decisions. The Relative Strength Index can be a valuable input to your toolbox and into your decision-making process.
  • The RSI is a momentum oscillator (oscillator is a line graph that moves between two extremes).
  • It is scaled between 0 – 100.
  • When the RSI reading is above 70 it usually considered overbought and when it falls below 30 it usually considered oversold.
  • The standard is to use 14 periods to calculate the initial RSI value, but you can choose the time frame you think fit the most.
Originally written at:
https://www.iam-unchained.com/trading/investing-learn/relative-strength-index-understanding-rsi/
submitted by Onah92 to technicalanalysis [link] [comments]

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movements

Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
  1. 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
  2. 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
  3. The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.

Current situation:
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.
Please visit the original post here https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/gm23pe/warning_blockchain_difficulty_adjustment/
There are pictures in the original post as well as 2nd halving evidence with pics. I could not post pics here. If possible please upvote the original post, a lot of people downvote it. Not sure why people downvote it, maybe veterans attempting to hide information from newcomers to fleece them of their shirt.

Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA.
On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%.
On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%.
On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min.
My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
Update 3: Current BTC price at $9100 ( ~39 hours after DA). Then again BTC could have dropped from all sorts of reason. However the coincidence with the DA and with all the past DA is just too high to simply shrug off as irrelevant. Anyways past result cannot predict future ones, stay safe with the trading. Will no longer check on this post.
References:
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
submitted by theforwardbrain to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Don't Fight the Trend (Sidenote - Fuck r/investing)

TF, like these corn balls out here removing posts that have any bit of a bear thesis? lmao
Getting to the point of my post, The Trend is Down....
Compiling data of closing points every two weeks from the start of 2020, each of the indexes are down-trending for the year & Bitcoin as well. Now the graphs which I've attached here hold little/next to no weight when looking for an indication on what position to take/when, but it's a piece of the puzzle when talking about the outlook for 2020.
Another piece to the puzzle, since that 'judgement day' post (referencing something I posted 3 weeks ago on investing, would link but that got removed along with my post on april 19th warning the clowns in there that they shouldn't be buying into USO/investing in oil lmfao); we have seen 6 green trading days & 9 red trading days on the S&P, signaling to me that investors are favoring selling in the 280-295 range much more so than buying. While the S&P has rallied above 290 on the back of NASDAQ/MAGA movement, it hasn't broken into/through this range with any conviction at all, it's actually forming a head and shoulder top in the trading range - seen here.
Further Dissecting the SPY - Price action is currently bouncing between the 50 & 200 EMA (EMA is quite significant as it weighs the price around volume traded, while SMA's simply calculate based on closing price day-to-day.) Friday's close placed us right under the 200 EMA (I view it as the ceiling currently.) and would point to downside come open market on monday (tomorrow.) *At the time of this post, futures opened with a gap down to 291 and has bounced back up to test this 2940 resistance. Will they push it above for a proper bull break before US markets open? Perhaps, maybe the bulls get their 300 touch; However, I see the indicators hinting to downside more convincing atm.*
Further DD of 'leading indicators' when looking at ST trends (DXY, BTC, XLF) -
XLF - (4Hr chart, rather than daily.) The Financial sector has been getting absolutely SLAMMED, like seriously, its almost worse than the beatdowns the small-caps have been receiving. Imo, this questionable performance from the financial sector says A LOT when considering investor uncertainty at the moment. On the four hour, this sector is currently bouncing between the 50 & 200 EMA's as they pinch closer together; which you could say is bullish, however, any and all uptrends on the chart have been broken & it leaves the financials out in no mans land (bearish.) It's currently pressed against it's 'LT' downtrend line (Established in early January after COVID was 'open public info'.) and made a double top rejection off of 23.70.
BTC- Touched 10k & crashed over 10% this weekend. As seen in the first screenshot I attached, BTC has been trading almost side by side with the general markets (Most reflective when looking at the S&P or NASDAQ.) I believe this to be a leading indicator of downside ahead similarly to how it was a leading indicator in mid-march when gauging 'how much downside was left in the markets.'
DXY - Key when considering short term deflation/inflation of assets. Has broken out above an immense resistance & has been confirming this as new support (people are hoarding cash, much more than they're spending, contrary to popular belief; I wont comment much tho, because tracking the DXY can get complex quick. We're taking it at face value here.) Watch for another major breakout (Would signify people hoarding cash, most likely stocks are getting liquidated at that same time. Comparing the timeline of the last breakout, March 9th- March 20th, this was the same timeline which the S&P took its major leg down from 300-220.)
TLDR - Stonks do go down, they've been maxing out for the last three weeks & deflation is around the corner. Positions - Heavy SPXU & SQQQ positions, AMD $46p May 22nd/ $40p June 5th, XLF $20.5p May 22th, MGM $10p June 5th
submitted by EXLR8_Reddit to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

An In-Depth Guide to: How do I Fix my Ledger Nano’s Stuck Ethereum Transaction?!?!?! (It’s Been Stuck for Weeks and NOTHING Traditional has Worked!!!!) As Well as: How Do I Choose My Nonce??? I’ve Tried MetaMask, MEW/MyEtherWallet, and Others, but Nothing is Working Correctly!!! I’m Dying by Stress!

So, if you were like me 1-2 months ago, you’ve probably already gone through 2,or 3, ...or 40 articles and guides that probably say something like:
“YeP, eVeRy EtHeReUm UsEr WiLl EvEnTuAlLy HaVe ThE LoW-gAs ExPeRiEnCe, YoU’rE nOt AlOnE! DoN’t FrEaK OuT tHoUgH; ThErE iS a WaY tO fIx It!”
Chances are, every time you read another useless article, you want to kill the nearest inanimate object, even though it was never alive in the first place. Nonetheless, you’re gonna kill it as much as it can be killed, holding nothing back; or, you’re just plotting to and slowly getting closer to executing the plan (and the object) every time you are insulted once again.
However, if you have the ability to download software (MyCryptoWallet) on a PC, it should be safe to relax now. I think you’ve finally found some good news, because I am 99.99...% sure this will work for the issue that so many people are having at this time, around the end of the month of May, year 2020.
More and more people are likely to be having this issue soon, since Ethereum's gas prices have been insanely high lately as well as having 300% price changes in a matter of minutes; Etherscan’s Gas tracker is nearly uselessly-inaccurate at this time. I've heard that there's a congestion attack; that was said a week ago, and it appears to be ongoing... (I can't think of any other suspect besides Justin Sun to blame it on... it must be incredibly expensive to overload the blockchain for this long... I may be wrong though...)
 
Let’s begin
For myself, I was trying to send an ERC20 token when this dreadful issue attacked. Specifically, the token was either BSOV or GRT; I sent them 1 after the other and the first succeeded, and the second one took over a week.
(They’re both great tokens in my opinion and deserve much more attention than they’ve been getting. BSOV is nearing its 1 year anniversary as I write this, and GRT is still in its 90 day community-development progress test, so of course I'm gonna take this opportunity to "shill" them; they are great tokens with great communities).
I was able to finally fix it, after a week of mental agony (also the txn finally processed 1-2 hours before I found the solution, robbing me of the gratitude of fixing it myself... (╯‵□′)╯︵┻━┻ ...but now I guess I can hopefully save some of you the headaches that I endured... ) I’m providing the ability to do the same, in a step by step guide.
Why did I go through all of this trouble? I'd fault the fact that I have ADHD and autism, which in my case can multiply each other’s intensity and cause me to “hyper-focus” on things, much much more than most with the same qualities, intentionally or not. Adderall is supposed to give me a bit of control over it, but except for in a very-generalized way, it’s still 90% up to chance and my default-capabilities to allow me control over my attention with self-willpower. But also Karma and Moons pls... ʘ‿ʘ
 
  1. In MyCrypto, (I'm using the Windows 10 app, version 1.7.10) you will open to a screen that says "How would you like to access your wallet?". Choose Ledger, of course. (Unless your here for some non-ledger issue? Idk why you would be but ok.)
  2. On the next screen (having your nano already plugged in, unlocked, and opened into the Ethereum app) click "Connect to Ledger Wallet"
  3. A screen overlay should appear, titled: "Select an Address". Here is where it may get confusing for some users. Refer to "AAA" below to know how to find your account. (Geez, sorry lol that was a huge amount of info for a reddit reply; I might've over-elaborated a little bit too much. but hey it's valuable information nonetheless!)
  4. After escaping the "AAA" section, you'll have accessed your account with MyCrypto. Awesome! To find your ERC20 tokens, (slight evil-laughter is heard from an unidentifiable origin somewhere in the back of your mind) go to "AAB".
  5. (You may have decided to find the token(s) on your own, rather than daring to submit to my help again; if so, you may pity those who chose the other path... ~~( ̄▽ ̄)~~) Now, once you've added your token, you should revert your attention to the account's transfer fill-out form!
  6. I'll combine the steps you probably understood on your own, already. Put in the address that your stuck transaction is still trying to send currency to. If an ERC20 token is involved, use the drop-down menu to change "ETH" to the token in trouble. Input your amount into the box labeled... wait for it... "Amount". Click on "+Advanced".
  7. Refer to Etherscan.com for the data you will need. Find the page for your "transaction(txn) hash/address" from the transaction history on the wallet/Ethereum-manager you used to send from. If that is unavailable, put your public address that your txn was sent from into the search tool and go to its info page; you should be able to find the pending txn there. Look to open the "more details" option to find the transaction's "Nonce" number.
  8. Put the nonce in the "Nonce" box on MyCrypto; you will contest the pending txn with a new txn that offers larger gas fees, by using the same nonce. If (but most likely "When") the new transaction is processed first, for being more miner-beneficial, the nonce will then be completed, and the old transaction will be dropped because it requests an invalid, now-outdated nonce. Your account will soon be usable!
  9. Go to the Gas Tracker, and it may or may not provide an informative reading. Choose whatever amount you think is best, but choose wisely; if you're too stingy it may get stuck again, and you'd need to pay another txn's gas to attempt another txn-fix.
  10. At the time I write this, I'd recommend 50-100 gwei; to repeat myself, gas requirements are insane right now. To be safe, make the gas limit a little higher than MCW's automatic calculation, you may need to undo the check-mark for "Automatically Calculate Gas Limit".
  11. Press "Send Transaction"!!!
  12. You will need to validate the action through your nano. It will have you validate three different things if you are moving an ERC20 Token. It's a good idea to verify accuracy, as always.
 
Well, I hope this worked for you! If not, you can let me know in a reply and I'll try to figure it out with you. I like making these in-depth educational posts, so if you appreciate it please let me know; I'll probably make more posts like this in the future!
( Surely this is at least far better than Ledger's "Support" article where they basically just tell you "Yeah, we haven't bothered to make a way to manually select nonces. I guess we might try to make that available for Bitcoin accounts at some point in the future; who knows? lol"... that's not infuriating at all, right?)
 
AAA:
Before I tell you how to find your address, I will first make it clear, within the italicized text, exactly which address you are looking for, if you are not already sure:
You may also skip the text written in italics if your issue does not include an ERC20 token, if you wish.
Ledger Live can confuse some users with its interface. On LL, to manage an ERC20 token, you first must go to your Ethereum account and add the token. When you then click on the added token under "Tokens" below the graph chart for your account's ETH amount over time, the screen will then open a new screen, that looks just the same, except focused on the specific ERC20 token. To confuse users further, there is then an option to "Star account", which then add the ETH icon with the ERC20 token's first letter or symbol overlapping, onto the easy access sidebar, as if it was another account of similar independency to the ETH account it was added to.
This improperly displays the two "accounts" relation to each other.
Your ERC20 holdings (at least for any and all ERC20 that I know of) are "held" in the exact-same address as the Ethereum address it was added to, which also "holds" any Ether you've added to it. You send both Ether (ETH) and any ERC20 Tokens to and from only Ethereum addresses of equivalent capabilities, in both qualities and quantities. In all basic terms and uses, they are the same.
So, to know what the problematic account's address is, find the address of the Ethereum account it was added to in Ledger Live.
Now, to find your address on MyCrypto, the most reliable way to find it, that I am aware of, is this:
Open Ledger Live. Go to the screen of your Ethereum address (again, this is the one that you added your ERC20 token, if applicable. If you're not dealing with an ERC20 token, you may ignore everything I've put in Italics). Click on "Edit account"; this is the icon next to the star that may look like a hex-wrench tool. On the new screen-overlay, you will see "> ADVANCED LOGS". Click on the ">" and it will point down while revealing a drop-down with some data that you may or may not recognize/understand. Likely to be found indented and in the middle-ish area, you will see this line, or something hopefully similar:
"freshAddressPath": "44'/60'/X'/0/0",
The "X" will probably be the only thing that changes, and the actual data will have a number in its place; it will not be a letter. Let's now put that line to use in MyCrypto:
Take the 44'/60'/X'/0/0 , and make sure you DO NOT copy the quotation marks, or that comma at the end either.
You can do this before or after copying and/or pasting, but drop the second "/0" at the end; it was not necessary in my case, I expect that you won't need it either, and will probably just make MyCrypto see it as an invalid input.
Okay, now go back to the "Select an Address" screen-overlay in MyCrypto.
Next to "Addresses", click on the box on the right, and you should be shown a list of options to select from in a drop-down menu.
Scroll all the way down, and you should find the "Custom" option at the very bottom. Select it.
A new box will appear; probably directly to the right of the now-shortened box that now displays the "Custom" option that you just selected. This box will offer an interface for typed input. ...yep... once again, believe it or not, you should click it.
Type " m/ ", no spaces before or after.
Type in or paste the data we retrieved from ledger live.
The box should now hold this:
m/44'/60'/X'/0
Again, X should be a number. In fact, that number is probably equal to the number of Ethereum (not including any ERC20 wannabe) accounts that you've made on Ledger Live before making the one we're working on right now! (1st Eth. Acc. would have: X = 0, 2nd: X = 1, 3rd: X = 2, ...)
Make sure you've included every apostrophe ( ' ), and solidus ( / ); there is NO APOSTROPHE for the "m" at the start and the "/0" at the end!
If you press the enter key or click on the check-mark to the right of where you typed, the appropriate addresses will be generated, and the address you created through Ledger Live should be the first one on the list!
Select your address and press "Unlock", and you are now accessing your account through the MyCrypto app's interface!
 
AAB:
In order to access your ERC20 token, you will need to add them first.
You may have to scroll down, but on the right-side of your unlocked account screen, you'll see a box with "Token Balances" as its header.
Click "Scan for tokens". This may take a short bit of time, and when it's done it may or may not display your ERC20 token. If it worked, you can head on back to the main part.
If you got the result I did, it won't display your token, or, if our result was exactly the same, it won't display any at all. However, you should now have the "Add Custom Token" option available, so see where that takes you.
You should discover four boxes, specified in order (Address/ Decimals / Token_Symbol / Balance). You may only need to fill in the "Address" box, but if you need to fill others, you'll find those with the token's address; here's 2 ways to find it, if you don't already know.
Method I:
Since you've probably already been managing your token with Ledger Live, you can go to the LL screen of your "account" for that token; Right next to the account's icon, and directly above the name, you'll see:
Contract: 0x??????...????????
Yes, go on; click it. You'll find the token's page on Etherscan; this was just a shortcut to the same place that both of the two previously referenced methods lead to. Skip to method... III?
Method II:
Go to Etherscan.com, or a similar Ethereum-blockchain-monitoring website, if you have a different preference. Search for the name of your token, and you should be able to see it as a search result. Activate your search manually of by selecting search option. Continue on with Method III.
Method III (I&amp;II; what makes you think there was a third method? I said 2!):
At this point, you should find the "contract address" somewhere on the screen. This is the identity of the creature that breathes life into the token, allowing it to exist within the world of Ethereum. Steal it, and tell MyCrypto that you've left some of "your" tokens in the address of your ledger's Ethereum account. MyCrypto will trust and believe you without any concern or doubt, just by putting "your" contract address in the box for "Address"; it's almost too easy!
Well whaddya know, this one isn't actually too long! Don't tell anyone who may have taken a little longer whilst finding out how to do it themselves, though. There's value in trying to do something on your own, at least at first, so I'll let them think they made the right choice (¬‿¬). But take this star for humbling yourself enough to seek further help when you need it, since that is a very important life skill as well!
(o゜▽゜)o☆
Now, back to the useful stuff at the top...
 
EDIT: A comment below made me realize that this info should be added too. Here is my reply to the comment saying I could just use MetaMask. I said in the title that this guide is for questions where MEW and MetaMask aren’t working, but I guess it’s easy to miss. I used my u/caddark account to respond:
(Using this account because u/caddarkcrypto doesn’t meet the karma/age standards to comment; the post had to be manually approved.)
I guess I didn’t make it entirely clear; sorry:
The target audience for this guide is anyone with a stuck Ethereum transaction that was initiated through Ledger Live AND are experiencing the same difficulties I had encountered while trying to fix this issue for myself.
This wasn’t any regular stuck Ethereum transaction. Apparently before, there was an issue that made a Ledger Nano nearly impossible to connect to MetaMask (which is also Brave Browser’s integrated “crypto wallet” for the desktop version) and/or MEW (also perhaps any other browser wallets made for chrome and/or brave) that I heard was supposed to be fixed in a recent update. It might’ve been mostly patched, idk, but during my experience, (in which I was using the latest version of Ledger Live that is available right now,) that issue still remained.
The really weird part was that it successfully connected to the browser wallets again after I fixed the stuck transaction. At first I thought that somehow the txn was what was bugging the connection. However, later, during no txn issues, I was again unable to connect.
Seeing the same connection error again later, I opened up the MCW app I downloaded the day before, and was going to just use that. While in the process of operating MCW, I suddenly had another idea to try for the browser wallet so I went back to that just to quickly test it.
The browser wallet worked perfectly...
I don’t know how, but I think that somehow, something in MCW’s software, makes the browser wallets work. They don’t work for me without having MCW opened in the background first.
EDIT 2: Markdown decided to stop working after I did the first edit... I might fix it tomorrow... how did that happen though??? What did I do?
EDIT 3: nvm, I'm just fixing it now; I won't get much sleep tonight I guess.
submitted by CaddarkCrypto to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Dash Competitive Basket Index for week ending 5 July, 2020. Yeah, we dropped a couple ranks.

Dash Competitive Basket Index for week ending 5 July, 2020. Yeah, we dropped a couple ranks.
We dropped a couple ranks this week. The new format will be collecting data and publishing the CBI weekly. Everything is a little goofy today because we are switching from daily to weekly, but the chart doesn’t reflect that yet, and the data is from week ending Sunday. But I think Monday would be better.

  1. Dash outperformed 8 of the 24 cryptos listed above us on CoinPaprika (33% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 38%
  2. Dash outperformed 4 of the 10 cryptos ranked below us (40% win rate). The 30 day SMA* is 35%.
  3. In total, Dash outperformed 12 of the top 34 cryptos (35% win rate) on the 7 day time frame. The 30 day SMA* is 37%.
  4. Bitcoin dominance dropped 2/10’s to 63.5%.
  5. 20 of the top 34 cryptos beat Bitcoin (59%) on the 7 day data.
  6. On the 7 day time frame, 20 of the top 35 cryptos (57%) were in the green.
  7. On the 24 hour time frame, 5 of the top 35 (14%) cryptos were in the green.
  8. On the 24 hour time frame, Dash beat 19 of the top 34 cryptos (56%).
* The 30 day SMA is the Simple Moving Average for the last 30 days. It is represented with the red line. The blue line is the daily Dash performance based on the price change over a one week period compared to the price change of other coins. Don’t invest more in crypto than you can afford to lose.
^ Dash vs the top 34 cryptos in the world. Meh, could be a higher low. Tune in next week!

The red line is the percentage of the top 32 Alt Coins that were in the green (price went up) on the 24 hour time frame.
The blue line is the percentage of the top 32 Alt Coins that were in the green (price went up) on the 7 day time frame.
Don’t bet the farm based on this graph, as it mixes a weekly result with a bunch of daily results. And hey, NEVER bet the farm under ANY circumstance.
submitted by solarguy2003 to dashpay [link] [comments]

Chainlink Up 339% YTD, Making It The Tenth-Largest Cryptocurrency

Chainlink Up 339% YTD, Making It The Tenth-Largest Cryptocurrency

Chainlink’s 95% Weekly Price Surge May Indicate The Start Of An Altcoin Season
Despite that Bitcoin marks one of its longest non-volatile periods, Chainlink (LINK) makes another move into the green, with a 26% price increase in the past 24 hours. Chainlink also recorded a new all-time high of $8.40, before correcting to $7.85, as of press time. Тhe most recent price increase managed to boost LINK’s position in CoinMarketCap’s market capitalization chart to reach 10th place, surpassing projects like EOS, Tezos (XTZ), and Stellar (XLM).
Source: CryptoBrowser.io
Looking three months back, Chainlink’s price increased with 128%, with an almost tri-fold price boost since the March 12 “Black Thursday” global market wipeout. Since the start of 2020, Link’s price is up with 339%, making it one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies in 2020.
The reason behind Chainlink’s massive price boost is the series of partnerships LINK sеcured with DeFi projects. Many of the DeFi projects need some kind of real-time price quotations, and Chainlink offers to them decentralized oracle network services. In just a week, Chainlink announced a series of key partnerships with companies like Kyber Network, Nexo Finance, REN protocol, Conflux Network and Bancor.
The list of partnerships, combined with the bullish market stance on DeFi projects, may push LINK’s price above the $10 mark. But in order for LINK’s price to spike above 10$, Chainlink has to continue the successful partnership streak.
Crypto experts like Josh Rager commented on the recent market situation, showing support for Chainlink in a Bitcoin-dominated crypto sector. Rager, who is co-founder of crypto learning platform Blockroots, and an official advisor to few blockchain startups, stated that Bitcoin maximalists should consider focusing their sight towards altcoins, because Bitcoin shows little to no movement.
„Bitcoin is moving in a $1000 range, while Chainlink exploded from $3.65 to $8.50+”, Rager tweeted.
Another crypto expert, Cole Garner, joined Josh Rager’s opinion, highlighting LINK had its first candle closed above the trendline, which may be the start for a parabolic movement. Crypto trader Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets”, posted a graph on Twitter, showing exponential growth for LINK since its inception to present day. “The most-bullish crypto-asset I have seen in a long time,” Melker noted.
However, Santiment – a crypto-focused behavior analytics company, stated that after such massive price gains, a “-9% retracement is commonly evident in the 12 days after being #1 on our Emerging Trends list.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance retracted slightly, which further fueled the altcoin bulls, resulting in larger trading volumes for some of the projects.
submitted by Crypto_Browser to CryptoBrowser_EN [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Performance in First-Half of 2020

Bitcoin Performance in First-Half of 2020
2020 started on a pretty good note for the Bitcoin investors as the BTC price appreciated over 40% just in the first 45 days of the year. Bitcoin went all the way from $7000 to over $10,000 by mid-February.
However, Bitcoin couldn’t cross its major resistance at $10,500 levels and soon after the outbreak of COVID-19, BTC price plunged more than 50% from its 2020-high to go below $5000 levels just in a month’s time by mid-March 2020.
If we look at the BTC year-to-date chart, BTC’s performance has been very similar to the traditional stock markets. BTC’s price collapse is in tune with the global market collapse in March 2020. Thus, Bitcoin failed to live to its image of being the ‘Digital Gold’ and a safe haven for traditional market investors.
On the other hand, the price of physical Gold continued to rise with the global markets plunging. Soon after this price crash, Bitcoin investors yet again started accumulating the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
But investors’ hopes remain up and alive for the Bitcoin halving event in May 2020. Investors once again started accumulating BTC and BTC price started. Just before the scheduled Bitcoin halving data of May 11, BTC price touched $10,000 surging 100% from its 2020-low.
Pots the Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin price has remained volatile moving back-and-forth in the range of $8800 (support) and $10,500 (resistance).
If we compare the year-to-date graphs for Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market, they are largely identical showing that BTC still decides the over crypto market momentum single-handedly.
Currently, BTC is trading at 30% year-to-date premium around $9200 levels.
Source: WorldCoinIndex
submitted by Bradcryptoos to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

The Future of the S&P

The Future of the S&P
Throughout several platforms such as Bloomberg, Twitter, Reddit, I've noticed many people who agree with the idea that throughout this pandemic and shut downs, certain markets should be reacting in a way that they are not.
At the beginning of the pandemic markets fell. The DOW and S&P completely sank taking out all gains from the past 3 years. Then came the quarantines, the city shut downs and unemployment claims skyrocketing. This would prompt an even further decline in the markets.
Before we continue, let's talk about what should happen when the stock market falls and a recession is being talked about. When this happens people turn to safe heavens such as: US Dollar, cash, gold, CHF, and now...BitCoin. Where has the indicators for gold and BTC been after the pandemic? Down. From March 9th to March 20th gold fell -14.57%. BitCoin also saw a sell off and dropped -57.77%. As far as the US Dollar, when we look at the DXY chart we do see a spike in the USD that is now retracing after reaching the 103 levels.
The recovery that S&P had during the month of April is illogical in my personal opinion given everything that is going on right now. Millions more Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, sending the six-week total above 30 million since the coronavirus pandemic began to shutter businesses across the country. (Bloomberg Businessweek). Oil prices have tanked and there is a huge supply for very little demand. Small businesses are at risk of closing. Adding on to this the idea of trying to restart the economy by lifting all social distancing bans and opening cities back will only bring second waves of the pandemic, and more unemployment. The DOW and the S&P should not have made such moves in the past 6 weeks.
Let's look at this from a technical analysis point of view. Below is a graph for S&P futures. If we use the fibonacci retracement tool, starting from the high to the lowest point we can see that the spike from the past 6 weeks has come into the 0.618 level. and respected it very well. Below is also an interesting article from Bloomberg that states that most investors are looking for another dip in the market before investing: "The majority of the world’s wealthiest investors are waiting for stocks to drop further before buying again, on concerns about the pandemic’s impact on the global economy, according to a poll by UBS Global Wealth Management. Among the surveyed investors and business owners with at least $1 million in investable assets or in annual revenue, 61% want to see equities fall another 5% to 20% before buying, while 23% say it’s already a good time to do so. Some 16% say that now is not the time to load up on stocks as it’s a bear market."
S&P 500 Futures Chart.
Bloomberg Businessweek Article
With this information and the logic of how the world works combined with a little technical analysis I don't expect the S&P to come any higher than the 3000 level in the following weeks. Rather I believe that it will range between the 0.382 and 0.618 levels, leading up to the 2020 U.S. Elections in November. That is when we will see if the market will break high or break low and set the trend.


DISCLAIMER: This post is purely personal opinion based on limited knowledge. This information should not be taken as an investment strategy. Before deciding to invest you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. No information or opinion contained in this post should be taken as a signal to buy or sell any currency, equity or other financial instruments or services.
submitted by ededdandeddy91 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.

Indicators

As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movement

Warning: Blockchain difficulty adjustment affecting price movement
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.
  1. 26 Mar 2020 [difficulty adjustment -15.95%, avg block time 11min 54secs]. On the 28th price crashed from $6674 to $6138 ( -8%).
  2. 8 Nov 2019 [difficulty adjustment -7.1%, avg block time 10min 46secs]. On the same day price crashed from $9234 to $8783 ( -4.88%).
  3. The next big adjustment was around Nov to Dec 2018 and there were 3 big adjustments with high block times.
  • 19 Dec 2018 [-9.56%, avg block time 11min 3secs]
  • 3 Dec 2018 [-15.13%, avg block time 11min 47secs]
  • 17 Nov 2018 [-7.39%, avg block time 10min 48secs]
  • There was huge drop off starting on 14th Nov all the way to a bottom on 14-15th Dec ($6351 to $3288 around -48%).

Current situation:
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).

https://preview.redd.it/ysnv85wh0lz41.jpg?width=597&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e130b077f9dc2fc9d02666ef89e6f9249a05f535
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.

Bitcoin 2nd halving evidence:

2nd halving falls between the 5th and the 19th adjustment so it is only reflected on the 3rd of Aug difficulty adjustment ( -5.43%).

See the dip on the 3rd of August. Price fell from $600 to $533 about 11% drop.
Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA.
On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%.
On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%.
On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min.
My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
References:
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time

Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
submitted by theforwardbrain to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

LeanFIRE and Goal Oriented Investing: 10 Mistakes you should avoid

Dear All -
After my earlier post regarding COVID-19 and 10 rules to deploy savings that generated lots of questions and interest I would like to share my thoughts about Goal Oriented Investing. While it's a 101 it may nevertheless be helpful to highlight especially in this market environment. I wasn't able to put graphs and videos here so you may find the full version here. Looking forward to hearing your feedback.

1. Not clearly defining your goals. Define your objectives and think in terms of sub-portfolios

Define your short and long term goals. Allocate to asset classes based on your time horizon (e.g. short term goals need to be carefully managed with a defensive portfolio since the short term volatility of high risk assets like stocks can hurt you). Be sure to have a reserve fund of liquid short-term investments and cash so you can cover emergencies and upcoming large expenses without having to sell your investments during down markets.

2. Not being patient and overreacting. Good things come to those who wait

Returns tend to smooth out over the long term. There is a myth about a Fidelity study that analysed all its performing accounts and realised that best performance came out of portfolios of people who either forgot about their accounts or were dead. You can understand why people believe these findings although the study never took place (look at the chart here - 1 to 20 year rolling performance again!). Logging into your brokepension plan account every day may not be helpful. You may tend to react – do not rush investment decisions.

3. Oveunderestimating your risk tolerance

Take a risk tolerance assessment if necessary to understand your risk profile. Your risk tolerance is important to tweak the asset allocation of your goal sub-portfolio. It is determined by: the degree of flexibility you have with regard to your financial goal, and your personal comfort level with volatility in your portfolio.

4. Aiming at influencing things outside of your control. Focus of what’s in your control

This is the Stoic part of the 10 recommendations (if you also happen to adhere to this philosophy get the Stoic newsletter I never stopped reading for the past 5 years). One of the eye-openers that you learn while studying for the gruelling (Chartered Financial Analyst ‘CFA’) Charter is that research estimates that asset allocation (not stock selection!) drives up to c. 90% of overall portfolio performance. You control asset allocation and rebalancing. You do control your spending and savings that will grow over time – don’t waste most of your time on researching individual stocks (read: Are you more qualified than a professional analyst).

5. Not acquiring enough education and taking excessive idiosyncratic risks

Some of the most trending Google searches during this COVID-19 pandemic include ‘best stocks to buy now’, ‘how to invest in oil stocks’, ‘best stock for 2020’ or ‘best investments for 2020’ etc. In fact the phrase ‘how to buy a stock’ surged to record highs. This also relates to FOMO which I have described here and chasing upward trends in a bear market. Acquiring Investment Knowledge is key as it is ultimately your decisions that will determine whether your hard-earned savings generate long term returns. Do your homework. Understand investment risks. Research fundamentals. Take a bit more time if needed – the market is efficient and is pricing in information relatively quickly – you have no edge in acting quickly.

6. Being overly conservative over the long run

Think of your goals as liabilities that you need to match with your investments. The power of compounding means that you need a much lower amount today to meet a higher amount expenditure in the future. Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it. If you have high needs with long time horizon you need to take calculated risks. Invest too defensively (e.g. low allocation to Equities) and it may not match your long term objective. Buffett’s exceptional investment returns are also due to his time horizon.

7. Holding excessive cash. Not taking risks involves high opportunity costs

Believe it or not but a lot of bankers working for the top names tend to hold cash and under-invest. By holding cash you are not only missing out on compounding interest but also paying more taxes! Inflation is an indirect tax that works by destroying savings in exchange for gov’t financing. It gets worse – as central banks print an unprecedented amount of money – most standard measurements of inflation, such as the consumer price index (CPI), do not account for the disproportional effects of quantitative easing which is rising asset prices (monetary inflation). Even when you hear about deflation it’s often very misleading. This bear market may be a good opportunity to gradually deploy cash for long term returns if you haven’t already.
As an example – the ‘headline’ inflation in the UK (2.9%) that over 10 years increased prices by 29.29% vs. London Property Prices that increased over twice as much. The same applies to other real assets, like company valuations (stocks) or gold.

8. Not considering diversification

Yes, bonds are not as sexy as stocks since your returns may not be as spectacular in the short term but these are excellent diversifiers that may be sometimes better suited depending on your investment objective and time horizon. Other currencies or hard metals/BTC may be good as well. As an example YTD performance (as of March 9th when I did the analysis) was -14.2% for stocks, +6.1% for bonds and +10.7% for Gold.

9. Letting your emotions rule

This is difficult to implement since we tend to have emotional biases. If you do decide to have a small part of your goal-oriented strategic asset allocation dedicated to tactical asset allocation, sector or stock selection emotions could drive investment decisions based on loss aversion or overconfidence (e.g. confusing brains with a bull market). If it’s e.g. the latter try to stay humble/rational and ask yourself if you really have an edge before making a decision.

10. Forgetting to rebalance

Some advisors recommend that investors rebalance their portfolios on a regular time interval while others recommend rebalancing only when the relative weight of an asset class deviates from the target allocation (glide path investments). Either way, this is something that needs to be observed on a regular basis. I aim to discuss glide path investments in future posts.
With all charts: https://bankeronwheels.com/how-do-i-start-investing-start-learning-how-to-invest-in-stocks-and-bonds-by-avoiding-these-10-common-investing-mistakes/
Stay well!
submitted by bankeronwheels to leanfire [link] [comments]

Crypto currency

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submitted by acclevantnew321 to u/acclevantnew321 [link] [comments]

The Survival of the Fittest: BTC Miner Story

The Survival of the Fittest: BTC Miner Story

https://preview.redd.it/l14umst6gf151.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=a13c395434249decd2fed8871c27779d2068610c

#BE_A_TRADER!

Greetings from MCS (MyCoinStory), the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.
Who would have guessed that a phrase from the 19th century is the best description of the world in the 21st century?

Herbert Spencer
“The Survival of the Fittest”, the phrase first used by Herbert Spencer in his Principles of Biology in 1864, may be the best depiction to describe the current situation of the Bitcoin miners.
Whether you are interested in Bitcoin or not, you must have heard from the media about the recent “Bitcoin Halving” that took place on the 12th of May when the 630,000th block was mined.
Just in case you are really new to the world of cryptocurrency, let us briefly take a look at the “Bitcoin Halving”.

WHAT IS THE “BITCOIN HALVING”?

Source: Shutterstock.com
Bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, has been and still is the most trendy keyword recently. In the last month, Google Trend showed a chart with the skyrocketed graph for searching the keyword “Bitcoin Halving” from Google.
The halving was first designed to effectively maintain the value of Bitcoin by mechanically dropping the supply, which is in contrast to the 'quantitative easing' used by many central banks to increase liquidity through the purchase of government bonds. The first and the second halving worked beautifully and brought the price from $15 in 2012 to approximately $20,000 in 2017. Nevertheless, people are expecting a different outcome for the upcoming halving by studying recent patterns of other cryptocurrencies’ halvings.

NOW THAT WE ALL KNOW WHAT THE “BITCOIN HALVING” IS, WHY “THE SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST”?

Source: Shutterstock.com
Shortly after the third halving, according to the date shown on Blockchain.com, the hash rate (the Bitcoin mining power in simple terms) has dropped significantly.

Source: Blockchain.com
This rapid drop indicates that the ‘inefficient’ miners who cannot sustain their businesses under the new return of 6.25 BTC were forced to shut down their mining machines. Those with legacy machines like Antminer S9 are already losing money. According to a calculator provided by Poolin, operating S9s at $13,760 is still making a loss. This proves that the halving had a ‘real impact’ on the Bitcoin mining industry.
Nevertheless, the ‘fittest’ will prevail. The miners with higher efficiency will survive and continue their works to mine more Bitcoin blocks since the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise and even if the return of BTC is halved, its converted value may become higher. Historically, after the occurrence of each capitulation, there had been price surges afterward. We do not know how long it will take until the peak though.

SO, ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS WAIT FOR THE PRICE TO GO UP?

Source: Photo by Austin Distel on Unsplash
The answer is “No”. As mentioned before, no one can tell the time till the next peak. The increase in the price of Bitcoin could lead to another bull cryptocurrency market, but those miners who could not generate profits will sell their Bitcoins in the market causing price fluctuations along the way, and experts are anticipating some big fluctuations.
This is the time where people had to act wisely and diversify your investment strategies. For traditional spot traders, there is no way to profit when the price goes down. However, cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges such as MCS (MyCoinStory.com) shine in this volatile market since one can hedge by short selling to profit in any market condition.
Only those who can adapt to the changing environment can survive. That is the essence of “the Survival of the Fittest”. Let’s all survive through the price volatility and make some profit along the way.

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS
Thank you.
MCS Website: https://mycoinstory.com/ MCS Official Twitter: https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official MCS Telegram Chat: https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN MCS Official Blog : https://blog.mycoinstory.com
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

Large-scale updates of Tkeycoin. What’s next? — listing on the crypto exchange. Are you with us?

Large-scale updates of Tkeycoin. What’s next? — listing on the crypto exchange. Are you with us?

https://preview.redd.it/ojtx6mauve151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=8dd727076d495d4b624a307775e64ae83ce31c76
Hello, everyone, It’s been a long time since you heard our team, someone thought we were gone, someone was waiting, and someone disappeared himself.
All this time we have worked hard to bring you good news. We will tell you what we have prepared for you, what events will be soon, what you can use right now and what else will be new in the year. And so, let’s go!

Preparing for listing on the exchange

The pandemic period played into the hands of the entire team and we managed to build beauty in our services. In anticipation of the exchange, the team tidied up the sites and services and connected new tools. First of all, we paid attention to the preparation of all services for a foreign audience, taking into account its mentality.
New sections, localizations, nice things, and much more to ensure the most efficient use of the TKEY resource. In addition to the new tabs, the services that we will talk about in this material, there is a special page for representatives of the exchange with the necessary documentation for listing — https://tkeycoin.com/en/documentation/.

https://preview.redd.it/63a1cmdwve151.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a064bff4acd1c1e3171f2c72ff79533b87aa3e1

Full localization

Already today the official website tkeycoin.com available in 5 languages: Russian, English, Korean, Chinese (Simplified), Chinese (Traditional).

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We made adjustments to the Russian and English versions of the site, including support for Korean and Chinese for each section of the site. Professionals in their field, native speakers translated and adapted the information as it should be, and we, in turn, structured and framed it properly. So welcome!

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We will update language support for the site, and soon it will include support for all languages that are available in the mobile app.

QR Codes for Asian Audience


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Our friends and residents of Asian countries actively use QR codes in their lives, both when paying in stores and when working with websites. QR codes are used almost everywhere when renting a car or bike, we just open the phone, scan and the mode of transport becomes available for use, anything is available for rent, even a battery, even an umbrella.
“It was a hot May day. Seven-year-old Wang Jiaozui came out of school and saw his grandfather, who came to pick him up. He was standing in the sun, and his shirt was soaked with sweat. Jiaozui invited the grandfather to buy a cold Cola in the shop, but he forgot her purse at home. It turned out that this is not important — the boy took his grandfather’s smartphone and called the payment app with a QR code on the screen.” ©
What to say if QR codes are used even to identify entire farms. By pasting QR codes on farm buildings and then scanning them, government inspectors can quickly figure out who owns the building and whether its owners are violating any laws.

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We must be on the trend! Now a special library generates QR codes for the desired page, any tab on the site tkeycoin.com in Chinese and Korean-accompanied by a QR code that leads to the requested page: fast, convenient, and simple.
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Providing this opportunity to our colleagues and future users of Tkeycoin from Asia is a friendly approach and most importantly, a strategic step on our part. After implementing QR codes, we are undoubtedly drawn into the convenience of this function, which we recommend to You:) If you like it, we will make QR codes on the Russian and English versions of the site.

Buying and withdrawing cryptocurrency to a Bankcard


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On the site, you can now buy Bitcoin for pound, dollars, euro, and any other currency. This is a powerful automated service for instant exchange of fiat currencies for cryptocurrencies. The system works around the clock and seven days a week, allowing everyone to conduct exchanges at any time of the day and in the shortest possible time.
Withdrawal to a Bank card will be available until the end of the month, we finish the details, the page is available now, and the withdrawal itself will be activated during this week. You can buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any other currency right now.

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These features are the future for the function of purchasing any product or service for TKEY at any point of sale, which will form the basis of the mobile app, quickly, conveniently, and most importantly, observing the letter of the law.
All we do is build an Empire that is being built before your eyes. Every service and product is connected, so any update promises the appearance of even more cool and effective features than before.

Buying cryptocurrency for pound, dollars, euros, and other currencies

At the end of February, we told you that we are working on building a payment service that will include the provision of services: buy cryptocurrencies, sell a cryptocurrency, withdraw cryptocurrency to Bank cards, etc.
This day has come, now you can buy Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Tether USDT, Basic Attention Token (BAT), Algorand (ALGO), Tron (TRX), OKB (Token Okex.com).

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The purchase is available in any currency: Russian ruble, US Dollar, Euro, British pound, Ukrainian hryvnia, Indonesian rupiah, South Korean won, Japanese yen, Turkish Lira, Argentine peso.
As you can see, the currency corridors are quite extensive, which allows you to make exchanges fast and at a favorable rate. Just choose the right pair to exchange or buy, available fiat currencies: RUB, USD, EUR, GBP, UAH, IDR, KRW, JPY, TRY, ARS, available cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, BAT, USDT, ALGO, TRX, OKB.
Even if this wide list does not include the currency you want to buy, such as Bitcoin or USDT, it’s okay — the service will automatically convert your currency into the payment currency and the Bank will make the exchange. Exchanges take place within 1–3 minutes, it is enough to pass quick verification once, which allows you to work with a volume of > 15,000 euros per month.

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Exchange of cryptocurrencies for pound, dollars, euros, and withdrawal of Bankcard

In addition to the fact that you can now easily buy a cryptocurrency for fiat currencies, pound, dollars or any other, during this week we will finish work on the withdrawal to a Bank card and you can easily withdraw your profit to the card, the most important thing is that this is a completely legal method, and all operations pass through banks and jurisdictions where work with digital assets is legalized.
This means that when you buy or make a withdrawal to the card, you get legal funds that are credited to you by the Bank or payment system.
If you are used to working with effective tools that work in a new way, or rather correctly and legally, then this service is for you. Fast crediting, easy exchange, a large selection of currency pairs, that’s what the company is betting on.
We work with the most reliable third-party partners to make your cryptocurrency process easy and convenient, and most importantly safe for You. The service supports plastic and virtual Bank cards VISA, MasterCard, MIR, and other payment systems for fast payment processing.

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On the exchange page, you can choose any currency pair to exchange in the opposite direction, for example, GBP to BTC or USD to BTC. Choose a suitable pair for exchange, available fiat currencies: RUB, USD, EUR, GBP, UAH, IDR, KRW, JPY, TRY, ARS, available cryptocurrencies for exchange: BTC, ETH, BAT, USDT, ALGO, TRX, OKB.
How it works
When buying cryptocurrency for the first time, your Bank reserves (holds) the requested amount, then this amount is transferred to the authorization waiting state. As soon as the Bank freezes the fiat funds, the service fixes the exchange rate at the time of creating the application, reserves the cryptocurrency, and provides you with 30–40 minutes to complete verification. After successful verification, the service charges cryptocurrency to the wallet.

Quick verification

Verification takes 2–3 minutes and requires only one time to perform operations every day. The “Know Your Customer” (KYC) procedure is necessary to exchange cryptocurrencies for fiat currencies.

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As you understand, you need to pass verification 1 time, regardless of whether you withdraw funds or buy currency, after passing verification, all services are available to You without any further confirmation.

New currency

Support for other currencies, including TKEY, will be added gradually and highlighted through service updates. As for the TKEY exchange, it will become available in exchange services after listing on the exchange. Listing on an exchange allows you to automate the exchange process, link the necessary services, and most importantly, the exchange provides liquidity, which is key when we talk about exchanging for a particular currency.
We will tell you more about the operation of the service and its advantages, chips, in a separate material dedicated to the withdrawal and purchase of cryptocurrencies for fiat currencies, as well as touch on various banking issues and tell you how you can combine the SWAP service for more efficient exchange and withdrawal to the card.

Charitable activity

By making an exchange or purchase of cryptocurrency, you help children and people who need our help. We deduct 0.1% of the profit from each transaction to charity funds.
This is the fastest and most comfortable way of charity, which allows you to bring together people who are not indifferent to other people’s problems. TKEY enables people to do good deeds, and the resulting turnover profit of 0.1% is sent to charity funds every month. Together with You, we create new opportunities for people in need who need help — “Big things have small beginnings”.
How does it work?
You have made an exchange or purchase operation, the company has accumulated the volume of these operations for a month->the company has chosen a charity Fund->sent funds to the charity Fund’s account. Priority charity funds are children’s aid funds. You can always suggest a candidate for a particular Fund by sending a message to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
Why do we write Funds and not a Fund?
This is the first launch of the service, so depending on the monthly volume, we will focus on distributing funds to one charity or several. For example, if we have accumulated $ 10,000, we can distribute $ 5,000 to 2 funds. if we have accumulated $ 100, it is logical that we will only send this amount to 1 Fund. With the development of the service, we will be able to focus on several funds, which we will actively help due to the received volume.

New sections, improvements for existing services

Menu logic and site structure

The menu logic has been revised. now more items are available on the menu and they are divided into sections. Navigation through the sections has become much easier and more convenient. for some sections, QR codes are available for Russian and English-speaking audiences, and for representatives of Asian countries, all sections are available by QR code.

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TKEYSPACE Promo Page

New blocks were added, the entire page was fully localized and is available in Chinese, Korean, English and Russian, and QR codes were added for easy navigation for the Asian audience.

Documentation for the exchange

We have already mentioned that there is a section for exchanges with the necessary documentation for listing, now it is available in English. In the next updates, it will be translated into Russian, Chinese (Traditional and Simplified), and Korean.

Market Data (Coin Data)

The market data section has been optimized for mobile apps. Charts are expanded and optimized page borders for most mobile devices, and you can search for cryptocurrencies and tokens that interest you.

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FAQ

Added answers to frequently asked questions in various sections of the site, You can find the information directly on the section page, for example, TKEY-QT, SWAP or Core. Right on the page there is a FAQ section, in which we disclose answers to questions, for example: How are You going to solve the scalability problem, or why did you choose Phoenix as the logo and symbol of the project, or how do you exchange cryptocurrency for pound or dollars? As you can see, you can get answers to different questions, depending on the topic of the site section.

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Footer

For convenience, the site’s footer has been expanded and new sections (quick tabs) are included, which are also available in the QR-code format. In addition to various details, the footer is now accompanied by the company’s coat of arms — the Phoenix, which is the symbol of the entire community, the Phoenix Alliance.

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Page 404

Added page 404, which is also an integral part of the site. now when you go to a non-existent site page, all the necessary menu items are fully available to us, which will quickly Orient You and direct you to the desired section.

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What is waiting for us in the nearest future?

In addition to various improvements, connecting services, our team has been working every day on other main areas of the Tkeycoin project, which are already being prepared for the next release and we will tell you what updates, what plans, events, and what else will be interesting this year.

Online conference with management

An online conference in question-answer format will be organized. The main task of the conference, in addition to questions and answers, is to discuss plans, talk about new directions, touch on issues of legislation, and analyze current issues of users.
The online meeting format will allow you to get feedback and discuss a large number of issues in a short time. Questions related to technical support and other questions that can be answered through the administration will not be discussed.
The meeting involves the development, constructive, and suggestions from users for further development of the Tkeycoin project. If you are interested in participating in the conference, you can also make business proposals during it, please use the time to your advantage. We work for you.

New content: reports, new categories, useful information

Based on user feedback, we introduce new categories to our content plan:
Reports This section will be accompanied by information about the work done by the team for the month, the format of submission — abstracts, highlights. This format will help establish feedback between users and developers.
Question-answer
In addition to the content that we produce ourselves, users have questions that arise during the process of working with the project’s services, as well as during interaction with the project itself. To avoid making guesses and making up stories, we have introduced the question-answer category.
Users ask questions in comments, and the company prepares answers based on the questions and they are published in the post. Depending on the number of questions, the post generates all the answers, or the post is divided into parts if the number of questions for the past period was the largest. In addition to asking questions, you can make suggestions to the project, for example, about new features or directions.
This format also builds feedback and helps to improve all services. the most important thing is that it can not only help us but also you, as the offer and questions will help you focus on the tasks that the end-user wants to see.

TKEY-POOL (Tkeycoin pool)

We are completing the work and debugging of the official pool for Tkeycoin, this is a completely new approach for mining Tkeycoin. The pool will feature higher performance and stable architecture, a light interface, and objective commissions.
A pool is a highly loaded system that works 24/7/365, it turns out that such a product hides a sufficient number of lines of code and, most importantly, is built on a reliable architecture that can withstand +50000–100000 miners, not to mention the number of connected devices for this number of miners.
A cryptocurrency pool is a combination of the hardware power of many miners at once to increase the probability of finding a block. The reward for a block obtained by the pool is distributed among all participants.
The TKEY pool is developed taking into account the features of the Tkeycoin blockchain, including multi-blockchain, transaction model, hashing, blocks, and other nuances that are an upgrade of the blockchain among others. Together with the pool, the TKEY network is being tested: high loads, attacks, and other tests that show positive results, proving that the TKEY blockchain can work under any loads and is protected from attacks.
Our task was to: 1. Stable system for handling high loads; 2. Adaptation pool for any software; 3. Connecting any hardware for mining cryptocurrency Tkeycoin; 4. Fair remuneration calculation; 5. Security.
The main goal is for any user, regardless of the software and hardware used, to be able to connect to Tkeycoin mining via a pool. The first releases will be accompanied by a simple user-friendly interface, easy connection, instructions for various mining programs that can be connected.
In future releases, we will optimize the operation of the pool, add new features, as well as tracking functions and other nice things. any suggestions from miners and the community are interesting to us and will be implemented, so do not hesitate to send your suggestions after the launch.

TKEYSPACE updates


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Work on the TkeySpace mobile app is also not standing still. We will soon release updates for TkeySpace on Android and iOS.
This release is a complete transition to the most stable version of the mobile wallet. This means that after the update, even with the largest changes, the user will not need to completely reinstall or restore to use the new features, as before, just update the app via the AppStore or GooglePlay.
Between the previous update has been a sufficient amount of time, on average, updates are released once a month. This update will be one of the major ones. We are finishing work on the code to prepare the app for the new features that will be available this year. Besides, we are improving the app’s logic, data processing speed, optimizing the code, restoring order, and preparing for the global market.

Exchange, purchase of cryptocurrency and withdrawal to the Debit/Credit Card


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In addition to pleasant optimizations, the app will display the exchange and withdrawal to a Bankcard, tab with an optimized page for exchange, withdrawal, and the purchase will be available directly in the mobile app. This upgrade will also capture the cryptocurrency exchange SWAP page, which can be evaluated after the update. Other features and new features will be announced by the developers immediately after the release.

SWAP Update

The development team is finishing work on optimizing the SWAP service. Regardless of updates, it is available in working mode 24/7/365. The team is working on improving the operation, optimizing the page, changing the interfaces, improving navigation, and speeding up query processing. This update is also among the upcoming ones, along with the pool, mobile wallets, and other news that will excite.

Network Statistics

In the network statistics section, there are several sections that will be fixed — this is the hash rate of the network and the volume of Tkeycoin. Now the volume of Tkeycoin is displayed by mTKEY, and the graph itself indicates M TKEY, the user may incorrectly understand the volume of transactions in the network, so, given the current volume, it is advisable to switch the display to TKEY, and in the future switch to mTKEY for large volumes.
TKEY is divided into cryptograms (CryptoGramm, cgr), uTKEY (keys), and mTKEY. 1 TKEY = 100 000 000 cryptograms. 1 mTKEY = 100,000 cryptograms. 1 TKEY contains 1000 mTKEY. 1 mTKEY = 0.00100000 TKEY 1 uTKEY =100 cryptograms 1 TKEY contains 1,000,000 utkeys. 1 uTKEY (keys) = 0.00000100 TKEY 1 cgr = 0.00000001 TKEY

Cryptocurrency Exchange

This issue has become the cause of mass discussions, disputes, investigations, the subject of memes, kitchen, and online conversations, that just did not happen, that TKEY is not taken anywhere, someone made guesses that we are waiting for everyone to run away, or TKEY is a world conspiracy and around some actors, you can write a book or shoot a great series, not worse than Breaking Bad.
Jokes, jokes, but the question is serious. Since the 4th quarter of last year, the company has been actively working on the issue of listing, prepared the necessary platform for this, held several meetings, negotiations, released the necessary products, figured out various transfers of funds to the blockchain, worked out many small things, many major issues that were behind the scenes. Everything is ready, and it’s time to start soon. This will be a surprise, believe it or not, and we will meet you on the stock exchanges :)

What other plans does the company have?

Enabling payment at retail outlets

After entering the exchange, we will actively engage in connecting payments to implement them and link them to TKEY. The plan, strategy, and legal component are ready.

Payment development

This implies the development of payments and services that will expand the use of digital currencies in the commercial sphere. Application on the territory of Russia will depend on the Federal law on the CFA, in any case, we plan to analyze the law, after its release, to find a legal way to implement payments based on blockchain and digital assets. Therefore, until the law is released, we are keeping this initiative in the future, and we will work on other jurisdictions that will support it.
We left some plans behind the scenes, because they will make the greatest impact on the market and the value of our asset, and this — likes silence.

What useful materials will be released soon?

How to effectively use the SWAP service together with the exchange and purchase of cryptocurrency from a Bank card?

We will tell you in detail how to use these 2 services, how to save on payments and purchases, how to exchange tokens that are very difficult to exchange, how to quickly get money for them to the card, and much more.

The law CFA

Our opinion about the law of cryptocurrencies in Russia, what to pay attention to, what to prepare for, how to act if there is a complete ban. Let’s talk about legal nuances and banking practices.

TKEY blockchain

In this material, we will talk about the blockchain, analyze the issues of the system, expand the questions on attacks, payment processing, and touch on the system of multiple chains. The article suggests your suggestions, perhaps someone will have ideas that we will implement in the chain.
At the end,
Don’t forget to ask questions in the comments or send suggestions to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) we will be happy to respond and consider your requests for any of our services. Collaboration, feedback, help us make the whole platform better.
Thank you for being with us! Until new meetings, stay tuned for news, updates, because the most unexpected news comes spontaneously.
submitted by tkeycoin to Tkeycoin_Official [link] [comments]

Gavin Andresen: crypto trading is all speculation

Gavin Andresen, Chief research officer at Bitcoin Foundation, expressed the opinion that traders speculate at the price of digital currencies, not paying attention to the essence of the underlying technologies.
He compared the graphs of the IOTA and ZCash rates over the past year and noted that he does not see significant differences between them. At the same time, from February 12 to March 10, no transactions were made on the IOTA network due to the suspension of the wallet that was attacked. Andresen said that he could not determine from the price chart which of the projects was experiencing problems.
“Probably nobody is thinking, and it is all day traders and bots,” the scientist concluded.
submitted by bestchange_pr to bestchange [link] [comments]

Your heresy shall stay your feet – why you shouldn’t just invest in equities

The most popular approach to reaching FIRE here in Australia seems to be investing solely in equities, either Australian only or with some international shares as well.
It’s a strategy expounded by some of the more prominent bloggers and any questions on Reddit or the like about how to invest to reach FIRE usually get a bunch of responses talking about various equities only portfolios.
Given the great returns that shares have had historically and especially over the last 10 years or so, it’s easy to see why this is a popular strategy. Which is why I wanted to write about how it’s probably not actually going to be the best idea for most people.
Quick disclaimer: As is always the case you should not plan your finances around what some random person on the internet says. Everything which is written here is of a general nature at most and is certainly not specific professional advice for you and you should not be relying on it when making decisions. Whilst every endeavour is made to provide accurate information at the time of writing you should be talking to a licensed professional about any specific areas of your finances, taxes etc. Also, it’s going to be really embarrassing if it all goes pear shaped and you have to explain that it did so because you read about something from a random blogger. Moving on!
I live in Australia, why do I need to invest in equities in other countries?
There are certainly some very good reasons to invest in Australian shares. You don’t have to worry about currency movements as much, there aren’t any annoying forms to have to fill out so that other countries don’t tax you more than they should, you’re supporting Australian companies and workers etc.
There are also a lot of problems with this though. One of the problems that is frequently brought up is that in Australia the 10 biggest companies make up about 40% of the index. The below is from Vanguard’s factsheet for VAS and it shows that the top ten companies make up 42.0% of the ASX 300 as of 31st August.
Which is obviously a pretty big percentage, but isn’t actually that unusual globally as per the below chart. Australia is really around the middle of the pack, although a lot of the countries where the top 10 make up smaller percentages of the index have much bigger markets.
What is more of a problem to my mind at least is that so much of the Australian market is focussed on just two sectors, Financials and Materials.
The Financials sector makes up 31% of the index, and in fact the big 4 banks are about 21% of the entire index. Given that they’re almost entirely domestically focussed with few growth opportunities here and with a very large amount of their earnings coming from residential mortgages in what seems to me to be a very highly valued property market, I’m not super keen on having my money invested only in Australia.
Similarly with Materials making up about 17.5% and most of this being companies that dig stuff out of the ground and export it and are largely reliant on continued good relations with China, it doesn’t strike me as being a great growth sector either.
I could be wrong on all of this of course (and have been wrong about all sorts of investment ideas in the past) but personally I would prefer a bit more in the way of diversification and growth prospects because otherwise you’re essentially taking a bet on housing staying strong and China continuing to buy our resources.
If I look at MSCI World ex-Australia (VGS), Financials and Materials are a much smaller part of the index so by buying international equities I have a lot more diversification and I get exposure to industries which have lower representations in Australia like IT, Health Care and the like and which are probably likely to see more growth in my opinion. Again, I could be wrong about all of this but that’s part of my thinking here.
There is also some diversification benefit from investing in global equities, in that although the Australian sharemarket is likely to closely follow what global markets are doing ie if they go up or down so will the Australian market but the reverse doesn’t necessarily hold true.
So if the Australian share market has a fall due to overinflated property prices for example, stockmarkets areoudn the globe are unlikely to get hit on the back of this. So to me it makes a lot of sense to invest not just in Australian equities but International ones as well.
Why should people invest in anything other than equities?
I mentioned in my post explaining bonds that I actually have about 21% in investments other than equities. That’s a mix of cash, fixed income, REITs, and infrastructure investments.
I also talked about one of my favourite FIRE bloggers the FI Explorer having about 30% of his investments in assets like bonds, gold, and bitcoin as of his last update.
The idea of investing in those other asset classes is that hopefully when equities fall or aren’t doing much, these other assets will go up in value. Historically speaking bonds tend to go up in value when equities are falling significantly. Likewise gold tends to rise when stocks go down. I’m less convinced about Bitcoin as an investment but it’s worked as a hedge so far is my understanding, and it’s not as though it’s me who is invested in it.
As someone who has spent a lot of time studying finance for both formal qualifications and my own enjoyment (yes really) I’m very aware of the fact that equities are a pretty volatile asset class.
I’m not talking about the stupid stuff on the news about billions being wiped off or added on to the value of the sharemarket that the media loves to talk about, that’s irrelevant because what it actually means is the Australian share market went down or up 0.1% or something similar that I don’t care about.
What I do care about are the big falls in the value of the market, and thus my investments. It doesn’t actually make much of a difference to me mathematically at this point in time because I’m still a long way from hitting my FIRE number, in fact it’s actually a net benefit because I can invest at a lower price.
Psychologically though it can make a difference. I talk a lot about the math behind FIRE, but in a lot of ways the behavioural aspects are more important.
I can tell you from experience that it’s not a lot of fun seeing your net worth drop by $100k or more when the market decides to go down by double digit percentages as it did for the last quarter of 2018. As much as you might assume it’s only temporary it doesn’t feel like that at the time and you start wondering if this time is going to be different.
I would say that I’m actually far more relaxed about this stuff than most people because after 20 plus years in finance (mostly in equities/equity linked products) which includes the dot com crash, the GFC, the Greek debt crisis, the taper tantrum and all the other moves up and down over that time period I’ve got a fair idea what it feels like to see my net worth drop and be nervous about the state of the markets and my investments.
Certainly from the number of conversations I’ve had with people who freak out about a 2% drop it seems like I’m a lot calmer about the volatility of shares. Despite that I still want to reduce the chance of big falls in the overall value of my portfolio as much as possible, to have some investments which zig when equities zag so to speak.
Investments like treasury bonds are great for this, because they tend to appreciate in value when the market falls as shown in the graph below taken from this excellent post showing what bonds have done when stocks crashed over the last 30 years or so. The numbers are for the US but would likely be very similar for Oz.
The chart below from this post by one of my favourite finance bloggers (Ben Carlson at a Wealth of Common Sense) shows the performance of stocks and bonds during bear markets over the last 70 years or so, again this is for the US rather than Australia.
The same author wrote this amusing post after Bank of America declared the 60/40 (stocks/bonds) portfolio dead. 60/40 is the rule of thumb asset allocation for US investors, here in Australia your super fund will tell you they’re more like 70/30 even though they’re probably more like 90/10. Again, that’s a post for another time. In any case, as he says in the post a 60/40 portfolio gave you an 8.1% return vs 9.5% for stocks, but had 40% less volatility. I’m happy to trade some return for a lot less volatility.
My point is that although having some money in bonds is not going to be enough to stop the value of my portfolio falling a bit especially given that most of my portfolio is still made up of equities, it will hopefully be enough to stop it from being cut in half as would have been the case for equity only portfolios in the GFC.
So bonds to me are a safety net, both emotionally and financially. Having that safety net in place means that I’m more likely to be able to stay the course. However depending on the timing of any stock (or bond) market crashes they may actually help me reach my goal faster. If there is a big stock market crash right before I would have hit FIRE and bonds haven’t been too much of a drag in performance along the way, then bonds will reduce my losses and help me get to my FIRE number faster than an equity only portfolio will.
What else can you invest in to diversify?
As I mentioned above another asset which can serve well as a diversifier is gold, although personally I don’t like it because even though it has worked historically there is no real reason why it should do so. Warren Buffett has this great quote about gold. “[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” So I don’t invest in gold personally, but if others want to I can see how it makes sense based off what has happened historically.
Similary with Bitcoin which I think of as being even sillier, yes it has worked as a diversifier in the short time it has been around but it has even less utility than gold and basically is worth something only because there are a bunch of people who are willing to keep believing it is worth something. Maybe it’ll keep on working, maybe it won’t, I’m not planning on buying any either way.
As I said above I do have some other investments like property (REITs) and infrastructure as well, I don’t think these are necessarily great for helping me out if the stock market crashes but they may help a little, and in the meantime in years when the stock market goes up but not by much these may well do better for me. In fact over the last 20 years for the US, both bonds and REITs have outperformed stocks.
So maybe I should actually have more money in bonds and REITs than what I currently do!
Does diversification help when you retire?
Dan at Ordinary Dollar has done some great work on optimal asset allocation and longer retirement lengths looking at a mix of Australian and US stocks and bonds.
Combining the findings of the two posts, if you have an 80/20 portfolio you get pretty close to the same probability of a succesful retirement as 100% equities but with a lot less volatility. Sounds like a pretty good deal to me!
It also shows that a 100% allocation to Australian equities (or to US equities for that matter) is not as effective as a more diversfied portfolio, particularly over longer time frames.
The benefits of diversification
What I’m aiming for in my portfolio is a mix of assets that will go well in most circumstances without too much volatilty, and when stock markets crash won’t fall by as much. This will help me out psychologically by having smaller falls in net worth along the way so I don’t panic when markets are falling, and as I’ve said above might well get me to FIRE faster than an all equities portfolio anyway.
It will also help me when I have retired because as it turns out having some diversification actually gives me a higher likelihood of a successful retirement!
Are you all in on equities, or do you have other assets to diversify your portfolio? Has this post changed your mind?
Original post with pretty pictures and graphs here.
submitted by AussieHIFIRE to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 07-13-2020 Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 07-15-2020 This Bitcoin Chart Could Change Everything (Critical Level) Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 07-01-2020 Bitcoin 4 Dimensional Chart (Time, BTC/USD, BTC/Gold, and BTC/SPX)

BTC USD (Bitcoin / US Dollar) This is the most popular Bitcoin pair in the world. Bitcoin uses peer-to-peer technology to operate with no central authority or banks; managing transactions and the issuing of Bitcoins is carried out collectively by the network. BCD Bitcoin Diamond. $0.8899 $168.28m +2.4%. Gain/Loss (24h) +2.4% . Price in BTC 0.00009690 BTC. Marketcap $168.28m. Volume (24h) $12.00m. Marketshare 0.06%. BTG Bitcoin Gold. $9.07 $161.01m +1.17%. Gain/Loss (24h) +1.17% . Price in BTC 0.00098725 BTC. Marketcap $161.01m. Volume (24h) $3.68m. Marketshare 0.06%. LSK Lisk. The most trusted source for data on the bitcoin blockchain. Products. Wallet Buy & Sell Crypto. Exchange Professional Trading. Explorer Live Data, Charts & Transactions. Buy Bitcoin Trade. Sponsored Content. Blockchain Charts The most trusted source for data on the bitcoin blockchain. Currency Statistics Block Details Mining Information Network Bitcoin USD price, real-time charts, bitcoin news and videos. Learn about BTC, crypto trading and more. Cryptocurrency market cap rankings, charts, and more. Rank Name Market Cap Price Volume (24h) Circulating Supply Change (24h) Price Graph (7d)

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Bitcoin Chart Technical Analysis for 07-13-2020

Learn how to read stock charts and identify technical patterns as ClayTrader does a quick stock chart review on Bitcoin (Bitcoin). Watch more Bitcoin Technical Analysis Videos: https://claytrader ... Learn how to read stock charts and identify technical patterns as ClayTrader does a quick stock chart review on Bitcoin (Bitcoin). Watch more Bitcoin Technical Analysis Videos: https://claytrader ... Learn how to read stock charts and identify technical patterns as ClayTrader does a quick stock chart review on Bitcoin (Bitcoin). Watch more Bitcoin Technical Analysis Videos: https://claytrader ... This bitcoin chart could change everything (critical level on BTC). In this video we explain the important of a key level on the higher timeframe chart of bitcoin and we focus on the likely wave ... We explore a 4-dimensional Bitcoin chart where we plot the price of BTC against time, the valuation with respect to the S&P 500, and the valuation with respect to gold (color-coded).

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